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What does the future hold for the IT industry? How will companies worldwide navigate the fast pace of innovation, the shift to 'cloud by default,' the rise of AI, escalating security threats, and the increasing complexity of software development? Marcel de Vries shares his vision for the future of IT, highlighting the importance of looking at the world with new eyes.
What Drives Change in Software Today
“If you look at how we build software, today's developers have a lot to deal with,” says Marcel de Vries, Global MD and CTO of Xebia Microsoft Services, as he highlights three key forces shaping the industry.
- First, the complexity of today’s software is mind-boggling. Rapid innovation is creating a crowded ecosystem that's hard to navigate. “When building a straightforward hello-world React app, do you know how many packages you pull in from the internet?" De Vries asks. "Over 1,000. And you need to keep track of all of them to prevent so-called ‘bit-rot’ — outdated, vulnerable code that might not even compile anymore.”
- Second, security vulnerabilities are rising at an alarming rate. In 2022, over 422 million individuals fell victim to CVEs — a number that skyrocketed to over one billion by 2024. “As we increasingly rely on external resources, we must understand we have a growing responsibility to ensure our products are safe to use," De Vries emphasized.
- Lastly, macro trends like the consumerization of IT, accelerated cloud adoption, and the use of AI are impacting how we work and what users expect from us.
So, where are things going? Let’s look at the past and apply lessons learned to the future.
Faster Horses
De Vries takes us back in time to the first Industrial Revolution, a transformative era in which machines and fossil fuels introduced mass production and consumption. Then, the second revolution replaced steam engines with electricity. However, not all businesses thrived in this shift. Why did some succeed in adopting electricity while others failed? Because of how they viewed the new energy source. To illustrate, De Vries references Henry Ford’s famous observation: “If I had asked my customers what they needed, they would have said faster horses." De Vries continues, “When something new emerges in any industry, we tend to interpret it through the lens of what we already know. Unfortunately, our current frame of reference limits our ability to see what’s actually possible."
Revolutions Remove Constraints
Looking at the example above, it wasn’t electricity itself that sparked a revolution, but the constraints it removed. By eliminating dependence on steam, companies no longer needed to be near rivers or forests. Instead, they could relocate to larger cities with better infrastructure and cheaper labor. And only those who recognized and capitalized on these possibilities were successful in this era.
Fast-forward to today, you might think cloud technology isn't a game-changer either. Many companies see the cloud as 'just another data center' and question the value of migration — especially when a cloud VM costs more than the one in your data center. But this perspective misses the point entirely. Again, the real power of the cloud lies in the constraints it removes. It’s not about replacing infrastructure but enabling what wasn’t possible before — scalability, agility, and innovation at a pace that on-prem solutions can’t match. It's this realization that will help you imagine what the impact will be on the future.
De Vries, "At Xebia, we guide organizations in how the cloud can remove constraints. Additionally, we support the mindset shift needed to benefit from cloud technology. A common pitfall occurs when leaders try to 'buy' change. They will read a report on DevOps, hear about its benefits, and mandate it. If that doesn’t work, they’ll turn to SRE or Platform Engineering, hoping for a quick fix. However, none of this will solve the underlying issue: their reluctance to let go of old ways of working. To succeed in the cloud or with DevOps, you must commit to change."
The Real Power of AI
Taking the above into account, what does this mean for the use of AI? Gartner is clear: AI is here to stay, and it will revolutionize the world on a scale comparable to past transformative shifts. So, how will AI impact the way software developers work? And, more importantly, what constraints can it remove?
"I can see natural language replacing programming languages. We will simply describe what we need, and AI will give us the executable," says De Vries. "But we need to refresh our perspective," he continues. "If we focus too much on what we believe is important today, we limit ourselves. It's as if we were to ask developers what they need, they would say faster C#. But there's more, and AI is here to show us."
The next frontier for AI is agentic AI, where Large Language Models (LLMs) and Specialized Language Models (SLMs) form a network of intelligent agents, leading to improved outcomes. De Vries shares a personal experience: At Xebia, we often host events, and security requires us to track the number of attendees in each area — a task typically handled by a person counting those entering the room. Recently, I asked AI to develop a program that counts all the people in an event photo. It delivered with only a few discrepancies. Creating or customizing an app using nothing but natural language really is this simple, and it will change our work."
Common Pitfalls
Even if we do recognize the constraints new technologies like cloud and AI can remove, along with the doors they open, there are still a few common pitfalls that often hinder progress.
"A typical scenario is one where a dedicated Cloud Migration Team will swoop in to overhaul everything — disrupting ongoing projects and leaving leadership in a state of panic," De Vries explains. "On the flip side, we also meet companies that task their own Operations to lead the change, which is like 'asking the turkey when it will be eaten’. Of course, they will come up with every reason under the sun not to adopt the cloud."
Another common misstep, says De Vries, is relying on a Cloud Center of Excellence (CCoE) to oversee all cloud-related initiatives. "While the idea of central expertise sounds promising, funneling every project through a single, small team creates a bottleneck, slowing both progress and innovation." Finally, replicating data center models in the cloud without rethinking workflows can lead to high costs, and acting like the police force, telling teams they are not allowed to use the cloud or AI, typically doesn't have the desired result. So, how should we go about change?
De Vries suggests organizations move beyond rigid rules, bureaucratic barriers, and a (false) sense of power and adopt the empowering lifeguard model. "Think of it this way," he says. "If someone wants to swim, teach them how. Warn them when conditions are unsafe. And if they dive in anyway, be ready to rescue them and provide training so they can do better next time.” This lifeguard mindset directly counters the cycles that have so often held us back in the past.
History Repeats Itself
Reflecting on the patterns of the past centuries, it’s clear that, despite technological advancements, something is still stopping us from taking a leap forward. What is holding us back? According to De Vries, the answer lies in human nature, “Our capacity for fear, while vital for survival, shapes how we respond to change,” he explains. “Whether it’s fear of job loss, embarrassment, or inadequacy, our natural response to uncertainty often traps us in old patterns. This is especially true in business, where fear is a well-known barrier to innovation.”
The challenge is that, since it’s part of our modus operandi, we are often unaware of how fear drives our actions. Fear keeps us safe and fuels many of our daily achievements, so it’s not inherently bad. However, if we want to move forward, we need to face our fears and change our response to them.
Carol Dweck’s research on fixed and growth mindsets offers a clear example. A fixed mindset views change as a threat, sticking to familiar patterns and short-term rewards. In contrast, a growth mindset sees change as an opportunity, loves learning, and celebrates resilience and adaptability. So, if we were to, for example, approach AI adoption with a fixed mindset, we would risk falling behind. But with a growth mindset — and models like the lifeguard model — we can turn fear into action. By fostering a culture of enablement over enforcement and empowering teams to experiment, learn from mistakes, and take calculated risks, we can reframe our relationship with change and shape the future!
The Future of Tech Leadership
Last but not least, what role do leaders have in the future of IT? De Vries shares a personal experience: “I've learned that telling people what to do doesn't work, but telling them it's ok to fail is equally ineffective. Show them that, as a manager, you fail, too. Be vulnerable and celebrate your mistakes."
He continues, "We need leaders who will meet their people at the forefront to drive innovation, preferably supported by an Engineering Culture — like at Xebia. Here, we seek the best platforms, are committed to creating an epic workplace where knowledge sharing is a core value, and prioritize smooth delivery and automation. These aren’t just ideals on paper. We are dedicated to making them a reality."
So, where do you start preparing for change? Be aware how fears drive behavior. Bridge the skills gap on new upcoming technology changes by investing in education. De Vries, "In Europe and the US, training has been placed on the back burner. Meanwhile, other parts of the world are making education a top priority. We don’t know what changes will come, so be prepared. Start experimenting. Learn by doing, failing, and trying again. The only constant we need to deal with is change. Embrace it. The future of IT lies in you!"